We ’re not quite back to the pre - plane epoch , but air travel over and around the north Atlantic might get a plenty more disrupted in the coming long time .
Volcanologists say the fireworks exploding from the Eyjafjallajökull vent on Iceland , which is responsible for for the ash tree swarm that isgrounding all commercial-grade flights across northern Europe , may become a intimate good deal . Increased rumblings under Iceland over the past tenner indicate that the domain is entering a more active phase , with more eruptions and the potential for some very large bangs .
“ Volcanic activity on Iceland appears to follow a periodicity of around 50 to 80 old age . The gain in activity over the past 10 years evoke we might be put down a more combat-ready phase with more eruptions , ” saysThorvaldur Thordarson , an expert on Icelandic volcanoes at the University of Edinburgh , UK . By demarcation , the latter one-half of the 20th century was unusually subdued .
Along with increased volcanism , more seismic activity has been tape around Iceland , include the magnitude-6.1 temblor that rocked Reykjavik in May 2008 .
Rifting distort
In 1998Gudrún Larsenfrom the University of Iceland in Reykjavik and colleagues used 800 class ’ Charles Frederick Worth of information from lava stratum , ice cores and historical records to show that Iceland ’s volcanism goes through cycles of high and low activity . The peaks of these cycles seem to be strongly link up to burst of earthquakes , which release the build - up of straining on tectonic shift near Iceland cause by the rifting of the Atlantic Ocean .
In addition , the cyclicity may be colligate to pulses of magma coming from the drapery and pressure fluctuations at the airfoil make by glaciers melting and geothermal activity .
Larsen and fellow worker showed that the Vatnajökull ice cap region – which includes the highly activeGrímsvötnandBárdarbungavolcanoes – experienced between 6 and 11 eruption every 40 years during phase of high activity , compared with no more than three eruptions per 40 years during low - activity phases . Other regions of Iceland appear to follow a similar pattern to Vatnajökull .
As well as becoming more frequent , eruptions seem to get more vivid during the high - action stage . A turn of Iceland ’s most devastating eruptions – includingthat of the volcano Laki in 1783that kill over one-half of Iceland ’s livestock and conduct to a dearth that wiped out about a quarter of its human universe – have occurred when the Atlantic severance system has been active . “ If we are enter a more participating phase angle , these bigger eruptions will become more probable , ” says Thordarson .
pronounce by late volcanic and quake activity , Thordarson and his colleagues think that Iceland is entering its next combat-ready phase and estimate it will last for 60 years or so , peaking between 2030 and 2040 .
Journal reference : Geology , vol 26 , atomic number 15 943
This clause originally appeared onNew Scientist .
Photo via AP Photo / Arnar Thorisson / Helicopter.is
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