Scientists have warned that there is a strong probability of an El Niño weather event work in the next few months , which can warm the clime and lead to problems around the world .
harmonize to the United Nation ’s World Meteorological Organization ( WMO ) , there is a75 to 80 percent chanceof El Niño developing by February 2019 . Although it is not expect to be as strong as the2016 eventthat make track record temperature , it will still have “ a major influence on conditions and climate patterns . ”
harmonise to anticipation , it will cause ocean surface temperatures to ascend by about 0.8 to 1.2 ° C above average . There is a miserable chance of a hard event , where temperatures could rise by at least 1.5 ° century above average .
“ The prognosis El Niño is not carry to be as hefty as the consequence in 2015 - 2016 , which was tie with droughts , flooding and red coral bleaching in dissimilar parts of the human beings , ” Maxx Dilley , director of WMO ’s Climate Prediction and Adaptation ramification , enunciate in astatement .
“ Even so , it can still significantly bear upon rainfall and temperature figure in many region , with significant aftermath to agricultural and intellectual nourishment security sectors , and for management of weewee resources and public health , and it may combine with long - terminal figure climate modification to encourage 2019 global temperature . ”
The upshot is notoriously difficult to anticipate , but the World Meteorological Organization said that advances in apprehension and modeling the El Niño / Southern Oscillation ( ENSO ) , to give it its full name , had improved their power to predict when it would take place . They also noted there was about a 60 percent chance it could keep through to April 2019 .
El Niño is anaturally pass off phenomenonthat go on every few years in the key - east equatorial Pacific . It select place when ardent waters switch east along the equator and sit off the coast of northwestern South America .
This can chair to warn and dry shape in the southerly cerebral hemisphere , including in Australia , Indonesia , and the Philippines . In the northern hemisphere , this can run to drier condition in Africa and Brazil , and surfactant conditions in place such as the US , South America , and South Asia .
Aside from a modification in temperature around the globe , it can also head to an increase in storms and drought in certain location . In especial , developing land that border the Pacific Ocean are often said to be most at danger .
“ It is important to emphasise that these are typical effects – not specific forecasts – and that genuine conditions motley according to the strength and timing of the El Niño event , ” the WMO note . “ Other factor can also have an important influence on seasonal climate . ”
For representative , there is evidence that climate change isexacerbating extreme weather eventsas well as making themmore potential to occur .
